272 PART 2 BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION TOOLS EXHIBIT 3 Analysts' forecasts for fiscal years 2012, 2013, and 2014 at mid-2012 Forecasts of sales growth Fiscal year 2012 relative Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic to fiscal year 2011 forecast forecast forecast BP -30.6% -6.3% 10.8% Royal Dutch Shell -32.6% -3.2% 15.1% Statoil -37.8% 1.4% 19.3% Fiscal year 2013 relative Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic to fiscal year 2011 forecast forecast forecast BP -22.1% -4.7% 20.6% Royal Dutch Shell -32.6% -4.9% 23.7% Statoil -38.9% -4.3% 22.0% Fiscal year 2014 relative Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic to fiscal year 2011 forecast forecast forecast BP -21.1% -7.0% 12.2% Royal Dutch Shell -20.8% -5.1% 17.6% Statoil -37.9% -2.9% 19.5% Forecasts of net profit margins Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic Fiscal year 2012 forecast forecast forecast BP 4.4% 5.6% 7.8% Royal Dutch Shell 4.9% 6.2% 9.1% Statoil 7.0% 8.5% 12.3% Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic Fiscal year 2013 forecast forecast forecast BP 4.3% 6.1% 9.1% Royal Dutch Shell 4.8% 6.4% 7.5% Statoil 5.3% 9.1% 12.5% Most pessimistic Consensus Most optimistic Fiscal year 2014 forecast forecast forecast BP 3.7% 6.1% 10.1% Forecas Royal Dutch Shell 5.4% 6.3% 7.5% Statoil 5.3% 9.1% 15.0% Source: Thomson One