3. A city has an average water demand in the winter months (Oct - Apr) of 270 MGD3 and a summer demand that is 60% greater than the winter demand. The river's period of lowest flow ever recorded is attached. Evapotranspiration averages 1.6% of the summer river flow and 0.8% of winter river flow. The river transports an average of 4.5 AF/month of sediment. Using a river flow exceedance model, what is the probability that this river will be able to meet the greatest water demands of the city should there be a return of the drought of record? (Ans: 55%) Reference River record of historic low flow: Average Monthly Month Minimum Flow of (19xx) Record (MGD) Jan-27 450.5 Feb-27 405.3 Mar-27 472.5 Apr-27 551.3 May-27 630.0 Jun-27 195.0 Jul-27 180.3 Aug-27 110.3 Sep-27 70.0 Oct-27 63.0 Nov-27 60.0 Dec-27 82.0 Jan-28 75.0 Feb-28 297.5 Mar-28 437.5 Apr-28 516.3 May-28 550.0 Jun-28 525.0 Jul-28 623.0 Aug-28 437.0 Sep-28 560.0 Oct-28 752.5 Nov-28 700.0 Dec-28 270.2 Jan-29 360.5 Feb-29 389.6 Mar-29 450.0 Apr-29 500.0 May-29 380.0 Jun-29 905.0 Jul-29 490.0 Aug-29 463.8