#3) Calls to a college emergency hotline for the past 29 months are as follows:

Month	Calls	Month	Calls
1	45	16	50
2	30	17	50
3	20	18	35
4	35	19	30
5	40	20	55
6	30	21	70
7	15	22	45
8	25	23	35
9	30	24	37
10	15	25	46
11	10	26	17
12	35	27	33
13	50	28	40
14	30	29	60
15	20

a) Create time series plot.

b) Develop a six period moving average. What is the forecast for month 30?

c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.65. What is the forecast for month 30?

d) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, and c. Which model is the better predictor?

e) Actual calls during month 30 were 55. Which model is the better predictors? Explain.

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