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3.4 Prove that the average age of the data used in the estimate of Equation 3.25 is given by 1/. 3.5 The number of violent
3.4 Prove that the average age of the data used in the estimate of Equation 3.25 is given by 1/. 3.5 The number of violent crimes in each of the last 6 weeks in the Hill Road Precinct has been: a. Use a 2-week moving average to forecast the incidents in each of weeks 7 and 10. Also compute the MSE based on the incidents and forecasts for periods 1-6. To initialize, assume x1=x0=100. b. Detective Bick Melker suggests the use of simple (single) exponential smoothing with =0.1. Use such a procedure to develop forecasts of incidents in weeks 7 and 10 for Hill Road. Initialize with a^0=100. Also compute the MSE and MAD. c. Without redoing all the computations, what would be the forecast of incidents in week 7 using exponential smoothing if a^0 were 90 instead of 100
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