4. [10pts] Researchers analyzed the purchase and return behavior of consumers ordering cold-weather apparel (such as winter jackets and warm gloves) from a catalog retailer. They compiled data on the order and receipt date and location for each item, as well as on whether the customer returned the item. The date and location allow the researchers to find out the weather at the customer's location at the time of ordering and receiving the item. The researchers found that the lower the temperature on the day she orders the item, the more likely it is that the customer returns the item. On the other hand, the temperature on the receipt day has no effect on the return probability, and the temperature one week prior to the order date has almost no effect. Carefully explain these findings using a phenomenon in the Choice over Time (Lectures 5, 6, or 7) part of the course.