4 Catastrophic Events and the Current Account [25 points] Consider a two-period endowment economy populated by identical households with preferences defined over con- sumption in period 1, C, and consumption in period 2, C2, and described by the utility function In (Ci) + Elln(C2) (1) where C denotes consumption in period 1, C2 denotes consumption in period 2, and E, denotes the expected value operator. Each period, the economy receives an endowment of 10 units of food (Q1 = Q2 = 10). Households start period 1 carrying no assets or debts from the past (B;). Financial markets are incomplete. There is a single internationally traded bond that pays the interest rate r* = 0. a) Compute consumption, the trade balance, the current account, and national saving in period 1. Do not forget to include all your derivation and equations. b) Assume now that the endowment in period 1 continues to be 10, but that the economy is prone to severe disasters in period 2. Suppose that these negative events are very rare, but have catastrophic effects on the country's output. Specifically, assume that with probability * = 0.01 the economy suffers an epidemic (COVID-19) in period 2 that causes the endowment to drop by 90 percent with respect to period 1 (in this bad state Q; = 1). With probability 1 -7 = 0.99, the endowment in period 2 is @, = 111/11 = 10.0909 (the good state). What is the expected endowment in period 2? How does it compare to that of period 1? Do not forget to include all your derivation and equations. c) What percent of period-1 endowment will the country export? Compare this answer to what happens under certainty (part (a)) and provide intuition. Do not forget to include all your derivation and equations. d) Suppose that the probability of the catastrophic event increases to 0.02, all other things equal. Compute the mean and standard deviation of the endowment in period 2. Is the change in probability mean preserving? Calculate the equilibrium levels of consumption and the trade balance in period 1. Compare your results with those pertaining to the case of 0.01 probability for the catastrophic event. Provide interpretation and do not forget to include all your derivation and equations