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4.5 A spillway was built to a certain height above the mean water level in the and has a probability of 0.15 of being overtopped.
4.5 A spillway was built to a certain height above the mean water level in the and has a probability of 0.15 of being overtopped. If the spillway is overtop then the probability of damage is 70%; what is the probability that the dam will be damaged within three years? (Ans: 0.283)
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