5 (Operations Management - MGT 311) EXERCISE 1: 1. Describe each of the five demand components in a time-series (of past demand data). 2. The following table is the historical data for Apple Republic's sales in their clothing up until November, 2009. Time Period Demand August,2009 800 September,2009 675 October,2009 700 November,2009 1100 a) What is the forecast for December, 2009 if we use naive approach? b) What is the forecast for December, 2009 if we use a three-year weighted moving average with .5, .3, and .2 (with .5 for the most recent month)? EXERCISE 2: Consider the following results: Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 Question: Calculate: Demand (in millions) 150 170 190 270 Forecast (in millions) 140 180 190 290 1- Cumulative Sum of Forecast Errors (CFE). 2- Mean Square Error (MSE). 3- Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). 4-Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE). 5- Tracking Signal (TS). GOOD LUCK