6 . time period of the Great Recession. She wants your help in forecasting housing starts during a period of economic downturn and to better understand its predictors. In a single Excel file, you are to do the following: Develop and estimate forecasts for housing starts using: a. A 5-period moving average b. Exponential smoothing forecast - let Solver find the appropriate a. (You can start with any value, but then optimize.) c. A quadratic model. Interpret the slopes. d. Seasonality with linear trend. How many dummy variables do you need? Use the last month of the year as the reference category. e. Lagged regression model-estimating housing starts based on unemployment rate from the previous month. Interpret the slope. For the forecasts to the future, assume inflation rates in months 61 to 66 are 9.4%, 10%, 9.45%, 9.6%, 9.25%, and 9.45%, respectively. f. Linear model-estimating housing starts based on mortgage rates and unemployment rates. For forecasts to the future, assume mortgage rates remain at 5.5% for the next 6 months. Interpret the slopes. Assume the same unemployment rates as in (e) For each model, graph the actual and the forecasted values on the same graph. Calculate MAPE. Use each model to forecast for the next 6 months. The forecasts to the future should be included in your graphs.) The Excel file should have one model per tab and one graph per tab. Be sure that the tabs are named and arrange them in the same order as listed above. Include a brief written analysis (you can put this in a text box on a separate tab) that includes a comparison of the accuracy of each of the models and indicates which model you recommend for this time series. Justify your choice. Turn in the Excel file through the designated link in Canvas