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7 . Manufacture or Outsource. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the

7. Manufacture or Outsource. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s_1)=.35, P(s_2)=.35, and P(s_3)=.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:
[ P(F | s_1)=.10 P(U | s_1)=.90; P(F | s_2)=.40 P(U | s_2)=.60; P(F | s_3)=.60 P(U | s_3)=.40]
What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable? d. What is Gorman's optimal decision strategy? e. What is the expected value of the market research information?

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