85 For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 85, and 83. (a) Construct a time series plot. 86 85 86 86 86 85 85 84 84 84 84 83- 83 83 83 82- 82 82 82 81 81 81 81 80- 80 80 80 79- 79 79 79 78- 77 78 77 78 78 + 77 77 + 01 2 3 4 5 678 9 10 11 12 13 0 1 2 3 45 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 12 34 Month Month 5 6 78 9 10 11 12 13 Month 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month What type of pattern exists in the data? The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a cyclical pattern. O Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern. (b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. Compute the MSE for the three-month moving forecast. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy? A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. Both forecastes provide the same level of accuracy using MSE. An exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.3 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. (c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)