9. Decision tree with multiple decision points Purple Whale Inc. is planning to add a new product line to make iCars. However, Purple Whale Inc. is considering the possibility of abandoning the project if the demand for the new product is low In the following decision tree table, (1), (2) and (3) represent decision points, also known as decision nodes or stages. The dollar value to the right of each decision node represents the net cash flow at that point, and the cash flows shown undert- 3, 4, and 5 represent the cash inflows if the project is pushed on to completion. If Purple Whale Inc. decides to launch the new line for iCars at Stage (1), then it will spend $80,000 on the marketing study. If the marketing study yields positive results, then the firm will spend $300,000 on the prototype. If the prototype works well, then the firm will spend several millions more at Stage (3) to build a production plant. Suppose that as an analyst at Purple Whale Inc. you have to analyze sequential decisions. By studying the following decision tree, you learn which of the following? Check all that apply There is a probability of 75% that the marketing study will produce positive results. There is a 25% probability that the marketing study will produce negative results There is a 30% probability of the pilot project yielding average results. [ ] There is a 25% probability that the marketing study will produce positive results Complete the decisiontree table by calculating the net present values (NPVs) and joint probabilities, as well as products of joint probabilities and NPVs for each decision branch. Assume that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 8% for all decision branches. Hint: Use either a spreadsheet program's functions or a financial calculator for this task. Round the NPVs to the nearest dollar and remember to enter the minus sign if a value is negative Note: All cash amounts in the following table are in thousands of dollars. Step 0 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Inflow Inflow NPV ($) int NPV x Joint Step 5 1st Invest Prob 2nd Invest Prob 3rd Invest Inflow Prob(%) Prob($) (2) 50% (2)20% (2) 30% -$10,269 -$10,000 Stop $0 (3)$4,761 (3)$1,900 0 $0 $8,237 $20,065 $2,345 $7,800 $0 $0 75% -$300 (1) -$80 $0 2590 Stop $0 Expected NPV- Based on your calculations, the maximum anticipated loss is $391,000 300,000 $10,269 $81,000 Flash Player WIN 31,D,D,122