Question
A 50-year old patient has been diagnosed of having a decaying liver. Although he is healthy, the patient's liver problem could prove fatal if left
A 50-year old patient has been diagnosed of having a decaying liver. Although he is healthy, the patient's liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated. Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of this age and condition without surgery. However, based on the internist's own experience and recent jounal articles, she tells the patient that if he elects to avoid the surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of living for 2 years, a 10% chance of living for 5 years, a 10% chance of living to age 58. The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5% and 4% survive respectively for 15, 20 and 25 years. 1. Do you think that the patient should select the transplant operation? Make sure to build a dicsion tree to explain your analysis. 2. What other factors might be considered? 3. Besides the facts and numbers proposed in the case, and according to your own research , can you add another treatment possibility for the patient to consider with some probabilistic figures? Provide your answers to this case on a well-written Excel sheet
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