A B Unsubscribe? 0 Customer 57 111 141 158 0 1 0 1 1 180 119 140 191 31 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 33 58 71 121 96 131 197 7 26 116 15 56 130 149 178 44 66 1 Probability of Unsubscribe 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 76 148 172 5 11 91 133 147 54 194 0 0 0 1 0 18 0 0.86 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 120 150 64 69 139 1 127 157 177 145 94 87 124 100 104 129 152 184 78 199 105 108 93 161 144 75 84 19 135 200 14 167 99 151 195 0 0 1 0 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.65 0.64 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 67 49 23 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 61 36 183 160 110 159 198 102 25 55 70 163 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 176 187 28 34 0 0 0 0 98 138 27 0 0 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 128 103 63 68 115 155 113 60 171 37 17 101 80 132 134 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 142 ul 0 1 29 107 1 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 32 73 35 52 114 125 186 6 74 95 185 16 20 136 192 10 143 156 181 45 62 86 170 46 168 196 59 106 179 175 88 47 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 50 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 41 79 89 123 162 30 117 24 65 137 173 39 82 165 21 OOOOOOOOO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 166 118 193 126 154 0 0 0 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0 0 146 190 2 53 1 0 0 0 0 81 22 109 153 182 40 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 43 164 77 174 38 92 188 0 0 0 0 0 97 122 72 83 112 169 0 0 0 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 0 Watershed is a media services company that provides online streaming movie and television content. As a result of the competitive market of streaming service providers, Watershed is interested in proactively identifying will unsubscribe in the next three months based on the customer's characteristics. For a test set of customers, the file Watershed contains an indication of whether a customer unsubscribed in the past three months and the classification model's estimated unsubscribe probability for the customer. In an effort to prevent customer churn, Watershed wishes to offer promotions to customers who may unsubscribe. It costs Watershed $10 to offer a promotion to a customer. If offered a promotion, it successfully persuades a customer to remain a Watershed customer with probability 0.6, and the retaining the customer is worth $60 to Watershed. Click on the datafile logo to reference the data. DATA file Assuming customers will be offered the promotion in order of decreasing estimated unsubscribe probability; determine how many customers Watershed should offer the promotion to maximize the profit of the intervention campaign. Compute the average profit from offering the top n customers a promotion as: Profit = Number of unsubscribing customers in top n x (P(unsubscribing customer persuaded to remain) (60 - 10) + P(unsubscribing customer is not persuaded) x (0 - 10) + Number of customers who don't intend to unsubscribe x (0 - 10) occurs when The maximum profit of $ customers are offered the promotion. A B Unsubscribe? 0 Customer 57 111 141 158 0 1 0 1 1 180 119 140 191 31 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 33 58 71 121 96 131 197 7 26 116 15 56 130 149 178 44 66 1 Probability of Unsubscribe 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 76 148 172 5 11 91 133 147 54 194 0 0 0 1 0 18 0 0.86 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 120 150 64 69 139 1 127 157 177 145 94 87 124 100 104 129 152 184 78 199 105 108 93 161 144 75 84 19 135 200 14 167 99 151 195 0 0 1 0 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.65 0.64 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 67 49 23 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 61 36 183 160 110 159 198 102 25 55 70 163 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 176 187 28 34 0 0 0 0 98 138 27 0 0 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 128 103 63 68 115 155 113 60 171 37 17 101 80 132 134 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 142 ul 0 1 29 107 1 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 32 73 35 52 114 125 186 6 74 95 185 16 20 136 192 10 143 156 181 45 62 86 170 46 168 196 59 106 179 175 88 47 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 50 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 41 79 89 123 162 30 117 24 65 137 173 39 82 165 21 OOOOOOOOO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 166 118 193 126 154 0 0 0 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0 0 146 190 2 53 1 0 0 0 0 81 22 109 153 182 40 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 43 164 77 174 38 92 188 0 0 0 0 0 97 122 72 83 112 169 0 0 0 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 0 Watershed is a media services company that provides online streaming movie and television content. As a result of the competitive market of streaming service providers, Watershed is interested in proactively identifying will unsubscribe in the next three months based on the customer's characteristics. For a test set of customers, the file Watershed contains an indication of whether a customer unsubscribed in the past three months and the classification model's estimated unsubscribe probability for the customer. In an effort to prevent customer churn, Watershed wishes to offer promotions to customers who may unsubscribe. It costs Watershed $10 to offer a promotion to a customer. If offered a promotion, it successfully persuades a customer to remain a Watershed customer with probability 0.6, and the retaining the customer is worth $60 to Watershed. Click on the datafile logo to reference the data. DATA file Assuming customers will be offered the promotion in order of decreasing estimated unsubscribe probability; determine how many customers Watershed should offer the promotion to maximize the profit of the intervention campaign. Compute the average profit from offering the top n customers a promotion as: Profit = Number of unsubscribing customers in top n x (P(unsubscribing customer persuaded to remain) (60 - 10) + P(unsubscribing customer is not persuaded) x (0 - 10) + Number of customers who don't intend to unsubscribe x (0 - 10) occurs when The maximum profit of $ customers are offered the promotion