Question
A business is planning to introduce a new product to the market. An investment of 10000 TL is required for this product to be put
A business is planning to introduce a new product to the market. An investment of 10000 TL is required for this product to be put on the market. The premium earning of the new product is set at 101 TL. When similar products in the market are examined, it is predicted that the demand for this product will be high with 60% probability and low with 40% probability. It is expected that 731 products will be sold when the demand is high and 478 when the demand is low. Instead of introducing this new product to the market, the company also plans to increase the sales of this product by making revisions with an investment of 2000 TL in its current product. As a result of these increases, the current product is expected to be sold 717, while the selling price of the product is 99 TL.
The business will be able to get information about the market potential of the new product from a consultant by paying a fee of 1000 TL before making this decision. It is anticipated that the consultant will report positively or negatively on the sales potential of the new product. In the light of past data, it has been determined that the consultant gave positive reports on & 70% of similar products with high demand, while 20% of similar products with low demand gave positive reports.
Solve the business decision problem by drawing a decision tree. As a result of the solution, determine the expected return of the decision (TL).
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