A candidate claims that she has 60% support from the general electorate. A random poll of 40 likely voters is taken, and 21 of them say that they support the candidate (53% of them support the candidate). In order to conduct a statistical analysis, the Rossman Chance One Proportion applet was used to see if the candidate's claim can be supported. Use the dot plot generated by the applet (pictured above) to answer the questions.

a) There are 100 dots in the simulated distribution. What does each dot represent?

• The proportion of people who support the candidate in a sample of 100 people, if we don't know the percent of people in the population who support the candidate.
• The proportion of people who support the candidate in a sample of 40 people, if we assume that 60% of the population supports the candidate.
• The proportion of people who support the candidate in a sample of 40 people, if we assume that 53% of the population supports the candidate.
• The proportion of people who support the candidate in a sample of 100 people, if we assume that 60% of the population supports the candidate.

b) If we switched the applet to display "number of successes" then what value would the distribution be centered at?

• 60
• 53
• 21
• 24

c) Which of the following conclusions is the most accurate to make based on our observed statistic?

• Because our statistic is unusual/unexpected, we have strong evidence that the candidate does not have 60% support in the population.
• We conclude that the candidate has 53% support in the population.
• Because our statistic is usual/expected, it is plausible that the candidate has 60% support in the population.
• We conclude that the candidate has 60% support in the population.

d) If we conduct a simulation in order to create the distribution of sample statistics, then the distribution will be centered at approximately:

• 53%
• 40
• 60%

e) If we conduct a simulation in order to create the distribution of sample statistics, then the shape of the distribution will be approximately:

• right skewed since 60% is more than 53%
• left skewed since 53% is less than 60%
• normal (bell curve)
• there is no way to know