Question
A company can invest $800,000 in a new product. After the short implementation phase the company will manufacture and sell the product. In the first
A company can invest $800,000 in a new product. After the short implementation phase the company will manufacture and sell the product. In the first year of operation it is estimated that there is a 60% chance of high sales yielding an after tax cash flow of $600,000 and a 40% chance of low sales, yielding an after tax cash flow of $140,000. In the second year of operation, there are four possibilities. If the sales were high in the first period, the sales in the second period may be high, yielding $700,000 with a probability of 70%, or low, yielding $330,000 with a probability of 30%. If the sales in the first period were low, the sales in the second period may be high, yielding a cash flow of $280,000 with a probability of 25%, or they may be low, yielding a cash flow of $80,000 with a probability of 75%. Determine the expected value of the project if the discount rate is 7%.
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