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A company has a multi-tier investment. They have $40 million in operating expenses each year and a cost of capital of 12%. They can invest

A company has a multi-tier investment. They have $40 million in operating expenses each year and a cost of capital of 12%. They can invest $10 million in new technology for their plant. There is a 40% chance that the new equipment reduces expenses by 15%, a 30% chance it reduces expenses by 10%, and a 30% chance it reduces expenses by 5%. Shareholders will view the results after 3 years and vote on continuing or abandoning the project. Abandoning costs the company $5 million. If expenses drop 15%, there is a 95% chance the vote is yes, to continue for another 3 years. If they drop 10%, the vote has a 75% chance to be yes. If expenses only drop 5%, there is a 40% change the shareholders vote to continue the project. Draw out the timeline, decision tree, and calculate the probabilities for all six possible scenarios.

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