A country is engaged in a war abroad that is going badly. There are a continuum of possible policy approaches y [1, 1] to deal with the continuation of the war, corresponding to different future troop levels. The most left wing policy (1) corresponds to a full troop withdrawal, the most right wing policy (1) corresponds to a large troop increase, and the exact middle policy (0) corresponds to a modest troop increase. Whatever policy is chosen, it will lead to one of two outcomes - which the voters call "success" and "failure" - and the voters all agree on what each of these outcomes look like. The voters in the electorate all share the following "mental model" that connects "how the world really works" (which is unknown, but which they would like to know) with the success or failure of the different policy alternatives. Specifically, they believe that the way "the world really works" can fall into only three possible and mutually exclusive categories - the world may be Left, Moderate, or Right. When the world is Left the "optimal" policy - that is, the one likeliest to lead to a successful outcome - is 1. When the