A day care centre has a clearly stated policy that children must be picked up by their parents by 5 pm. Nevertheless, some parents are often late and, as a result, at least one teacher must wait until the parents arrive. Because there is extensive research suggesting that people are sensitive to financial disincentives, the day care centre manager decides to introduce a fine for tardy parents. To determine whether this decision has the desired effect, the centre keeps track of the number of parents who come late for four weeks both before and after the fine is introduced. In the first four weeks they register, on average, six late pickups per week. In the fifth week, the fine is introduced: parents who arrive more than 10 minutes late will receive a fine of US $3. This fine will be added to the parents' monthly bill (which is about US $380). To the manager's great surprise, in the four weeks after the fine is introduced the average number of late pickups goes up from 6 to 20. Apparently, the fine backfired. To find an explanation for this unexpected outcome, a focus group is held with some of the parents. From this focus group, the manager learns that putting such a small fine on a late pickup absolved the parents of the moral guilt they felt for being late. How much would you trust the outcome of this methodology of assessing the new policy? Explain. Ps: the coursebook is Evidence-Based Management: How to Use Evidence to Make Better Organizational Decisions by Eric Barends