A. Evaluate each of the following statements:

1. The random-walk theory, with its implication that investing in stocks is like playing roulette, is a powerful indictment of our capital markets.

2. If everyone believes you can make money by charting stock prices, then price changes wont be random.

3. The random-walk theory implies that events are random, but many events are not random. If it rains today, theres a fair bet that it will rain again tomorrow.

B. Does the statement, mutual fund X has had superior performance for each of the last 10 years contradict the efficient market hypothesis?

1. If fund X is the only fund, calculate the probability that only by chance it would have achieved superior performance for each of the past 10 years.

2. Now recognize that there are nearly 10,000 mutual funds in the United States. What is the probability that by chance there is at least 1 out of 10,000 funds that obtained 10 successive years of superior performance?