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A firm has the following sales history over the last 4 years (million ). Year Quarter Sales Year Quarter Sales 2014 1st 23 2016 1st

A firm has the following sales history over the last 4 years (million ).

Year

Quarter

Sales

Year

Quarter

Sales

2014

1st

23

2016

1st

24

2nd

2nd

13

12

2nd 12

3rd

3rd

20

22

3rd 22

4th

4th

10

10

4th 10

2015

1st

25

2017

1st

26

2nd

2nd

12

14

2nd 14

3rd

3rd

21

19

3rd 19

4th

4th

11

12

4th 12

Assume 2017 to be the beyond sample period.

9. Compute the forecast of the demand for 2017 applying the seasonal simple mean methodology.

10. Compute the forecast of the demand for 2017 applying the seasonal nave methodology.

According to the results in the previous questions,

11. Which method would you choose?

12. How accurate is that method?

13. Compute the tracking signal for it (do it for each beyond sample period).

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