Question
A firm has the following sales history over the last 4 years (million ). Year Quarter Sales Year Quarter Sales 2014 1st 23 2016 1st
A firm has the following sales history over the last 4 years (million ). | Year | Quarter | Sales | Year | Quarter | Sales |
2014 | 1st | 23 | 2016 | 1st | 24 | |
2nd | 2nd | 13 | 12 | 2nd | 12 | |
3rd | 3rd | 20 | 22 | 3rd | 22 | |
4th | 4th | 10 | 10 | 4th | 10 | |
2015 | 1st | 25 | 2017 | 1st | 26 | |
2nd | 2nd | 12 | 14 | 2nd | 14 | |
3rd | 3rd | 21 | 19 | 3rd | 19 | |
4th | 4th | 11 | 12 | 4th | 12 |
Assume 2017 to be the beyond sample period.
9. Compute the forecast of the demand for 2017 applying the seasonal simple mean methodology.
10. Compute the forecast of the demand for 2017 applying the seasonal nave methodology.
According to the results in the previous questions,
11. Which method would you choose?
12. How accurate is that method?
13. Compute the tracking signal for it (do it for each beyond sample period).
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