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A firm is analyzing a 3 - year oil development project, and the project can either start now or wait for a year to start.

A firm is analyzing a 3-year oil development project, and the project can either start now or wait for a year to start. If the project starts now, the future oil demand (high, average, or low) is uncertain, and the expected NPV is -$1 million. If the project waits for a year, the oil demand will become certain; and if the demand is low, the project will not start at all and the firm will avoid losing money. Such a delay option has a value of +$3 million. What is the final decision on the project?
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Accept the project because its adjusted NPV is $2 million (-1+3=2). Wait for a year to decide whether to start the project or not.
Reject the project now because its initial NPV (without the delay option) is -$1 million.
Reject the project now because the future is uncertain.
Start the project now. Do not wait for a year.

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