a. First calculate future electricity demand in years 2020-2024 assuming a median temperature (86.09 degrees F).

2020

2021

2022

2023

2023

2. Next calculate future electricity demand in each year, 2020-24, assuming a 90^th percentile temperature (88.3 degrees F).

2020

2021

2022

2023

2023

If you want to have enough generation capacity to meet 2024 peak demand under a 90^th percentile temperature, how much new capacity do you need to build (assuming today the system has 21 GW of firm capacity installed).

c. How much new capacity do you need in order to have a 15% reserve margin (i.e., 115% of 2024 peak demand under a 90^th percentile)?

You are chief demand forecaster at the friendly neighborhood electric utility, and are trying to build a model that will predict "peak system demand" in the year 2024. To start with, you have a bunch of historical information for the past 20 years, including peak demand data and records of four other variables that might help explain how peak demand changes year-to-year. Note that 1 GW = 1000 MW. Year Economic Index Population (million) Peak Demand (GW) 19.34 20.11 19.83 20.20 20.47 1.10 1.30 1.40 1.50 Per Capita Energy use Metric 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.10 1.20 1.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20.70 20.52 Max Average Daily Temp (F) 85.46 86.99 86.00 84.47 86.99 89.42 89.42 90.50 86.00 86.00 86.99 84.47 4.00 4.08 4.14 4.21 4.27 4.35 4.44 4.55 4.64 4.72 4.79 4.85 4.90 4.95 5.00 5.06 20.81 20.20 19.78 1.80 1.60 2.67 1.78 -0.29 -2.78 2.53 1.60 2.22 1.80 2.00 2.40 0.98 0.98 86.99 20.81 20.67 20.98 20.49 20.85 20.74 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.94 83.48 84.56 83.56 0.93 You are chief demand forecaster at the friendly neighborhood electric utility, and are trying to build a model that will predict "peak system demand" in the year 2024. To start with, you have a bunch of historical information for the past 20 years, including peak demand data and records of four other variables that might help explain how peak demand changes year-to-year. Note that 1 GW = 1000 MW. Year Economic Index Population (million) Peak Demand (GW) 19.34 20.11 19.83 20.20 20.47 1.10 1.30 1.40 1.50 Per Capita Energy use Metric 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.10 1.20 1.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20.70 20.52 Max Average Daily Temp (F) 85.46 86.99 86.00 84.47 86.99 89.42 89.42 90.50 86.00 86.00 86.99 84.47 4.00 4.08 4.14 4.21 4.27 4.35 4.44 4.55 4.64 4.72 4.79 4.85 4.90 4.95 5.00 5.06 20.81 20.20 19.78 1.80 1.60 2.67 1.78 -0.29 -2.78 2.53 1.60 2.22 1.80 2.00 2.40 0.98 0.98 86.99 20.81 20.67 20.98 20.49 20.85 20.74 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.94 83.48 84.56 83.56 0.93