A forensic scientist recovers two biological traces from the crime scene. A DNA analysis of each of the traces produces two different DNA profiles, each of a single individual. The DNA profile of trace 1 has a match probability of 1 in 1 million and the DNA profile of trace 2 has a match probability of 1 in 200,000. The profile of trace 1 is searched in a local DNA database and produces exactly 1 hit with individual Y. This DNA database contains 100,000 individuals (i.e., n = 100,000) out of the 2 million individuals making up the population of potential sources in this case (i.e., N = 2 million). What likelihood ratio do you assign to these results for the following pair of propositions?

H_p:At least one of the traces came from individual Y.

H_d:Neither of the traces came from individual Y.

In this likelihood ratio assignment please assume that if propositionH_pis true, then it is a priori equally probable for individual Y to be the source of trace 1 as it is for individual Y to be the source of trace 2.

(Please round your answer to the nearest digit so that there are no numbers after the decimal point.)

Group of answer choices

1,052,631

526,316

210,526

105,263

Could you explain how to use the likelihood ratio for one trade?

Likelihood ratio equation: (2 million P1)/Total person in DB

Given

Pt1=(1/1000000)

Pt2=(1/200000)

BD= 1/100000