A group is planning to back the production of a new musical at Lusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the first month. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further six months earning a profit of K350 000. If critics dislike it, it will close at the end of the first month. There is a 50: 50 chance of a favourable review.

Should the group invest in the musical?