A high school holds a charity raffle every year that awards a randomly chosen student a small gift certificate to a local mall. The first year's winner of the raffle is a student named Jessica. Some students in the school say Jessica will likely win a second year in a row because of "winner's luck," or the idea that being chosen randomly the first year makes Jessica more likely to be chosen the second year. Other students believe Jessica is less likely than any other student to win because it is unlikely that one student would win two years in a row.

The concept of lucky streaks, or winner's luck, is a common one.

State whether you agree or disagree with each group of students, and give reasons for your opinion.

Be sure to use some of the terms you've learned in this unit, such asindependent event, dependent event, and conditional probability, in your answer.