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A historic study of financial markets ( 1 9 2 0 s - present ) demonstrates that: i ) Stocks whose price is predominantly driven
A historic study of financial markets spresent demonstrates that: i Stocks
whose price is predominantly driven by their cash cow value have produced lower
future returns than stocks whose price is predominantly driven by their NPVGO
value. ii Although in the very short term stock returns can be negative, there has
never been a year period where their returns have been negative after accounting
for fees, taxes,and inflation. iii High Shiller PE ratios today have historically been
associated with above average future stock market returns over a year period. iv
Using a normal distribution to describe potential stock market outcomes
overestimates the probability of stock market crashesa loss in a day
i
ii iii
iii, iv
None of the above
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