A.)

In addition to quantifying the level of risk in capital budgeting, a financial manager needs to assess risk based on "the feel", by implementing the behavioral approach. Between the various risk analyses techniques discussed in the book, if I were CFO, I would choose the appropriate approach, based on the situation, including timing and tax factors.

In break-even analysis, the analyst must conclude the cash inflows amount to quantities large enough to produce a positive NPV. Scenario analysis is used to get a feel for the variable possible outcomes of cash inflows and returns. Determining the NPV based on "worse" scenario, "most likely" scenario and "best" scenario will help establish an NPV range. Simulation analysis utilizes a statistical approach, utilizing probability distributions and random numbers to assess risk. Technological advances has allowed simulation analysis to evaluate thousands of returns in a short period of time, while manipulating a number of variables, which leads to better decisions being made when analyzing risk. The risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) is used to measure the rate of return that must be reached in order to satisfy the owners and maintain or increase the firm's share price.

The simulation approach seems to render the most statistically accurate and thorough approach, due to the application of probability distribution and vast number of calculations and predictions possible. It seems to also yield the most accurate results possible, due to the number of possible outcomes to be evaluated. The easiest to use would be break-even analysis.

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b.) I would favor the risk adjusted discount. The reason I would utilize this method is that it will give me the rate that must be returned for the company to, at minimum, maintain the share price with the the knowledge of what needs to be achieved on the return to improve the firms share price. I believe that this method will also yield me the most accurate information. This is because it will take all factors into consideration. The break even analysis will be the easiest method to implement. The reason I believe this is due to the fact that there is not a lot of research or estimation done since the data is already available to to the company.

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