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A knight - errant seeking to slay a dragon arrives at a fork with a road sign saying that, on the leftmost path, he faces
A knighterrant seeking to slay a dragon arrives at a fork with a road sign saying that, on the leftmost path, he faces a probability of meeting Grendel the Dragon, who has a record of killing of the knights who fight him; on the middle path, there is a probability of meeting Smaug the Dragon, who kills of the contenders; and on the rightmost path, there is a probability of meeting Puffie the Dragon, who kills of the contenders. The knight decides to trust his fate and to cast a die: or will send him on the road to Grendel, or to Smaug, and or to Puffie. Dont forget this initial choice of path when you set up a diagram.
a What are his chances to come to the princess alive? Remember that this will happen if he either doesnt meet a dragon or he does, but the dragon fails to kill him.
b If he shows up at his date, how likely is it that he followed the rightmost path?
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