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A knight - errant seeking to slay a dragon arrives at a fork with a road sign saying that, on the leftmost path, he faces

A knight-errant seeking to slay a dragon arrives at a fork with a road sign saying that, on the leftmost path, he faces a 0.6 probability of meeting Grendel the Dragon, who has a record of killing 70% of the knights who fight him; on the middle path, there is a 0.5 probability of meeting Smaug the Dragon, who kills 60% of the contenders; and on the rightmost path, there is a 0.4 probability of meeting Puffie the Dragon, who kills 30% of the contenders. The knight decides to trust his fate and to cast a die: 1 or 2 will send him on the road to Grendel, 3 or 4 to Smaug, and 5 or 6 to Puffie. (Dont forget this initial choice of path when you set up a diagram.)
(a) What are his chances to come to the princess alive? (Remember that this will happen if he either doesnt meet a dragon or he does, but the dragon fails to kill him.)
(b) If he shows up at his date, how likely is it that he followed the rightmost path?

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