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A lightbulb manufacturer ships large consignments of lightbulbs to big industrial users. The production process is functions correctly 90% of the time. When production is
A lightbulb manufacturer ships large consignments of lightbulbs to big industrial users. The production process is functions correctly 90% of the time. When production is correct, then only. 25% of all bulbs produced are defective. However, the process is susceptible to an occasional malfunction, leading to a defective rate of 60%. If a defective bulb is found, what is the probability that the process is functioning correctly? NOTE: This problem asks you to use Bayes Theorem. I know this is a Bayes problem because I am given evidence (a bulb is defective bulb) and am asked to update the prior probabilities with this new information. Prior probability the proceess functioning correctly P(C)=0.90 Prior probabilty it is not working correctly P(NC)=0.10 The conditional probabilty that I find a defective part if the process is functioning correctly is P(DC)=0.25 Draw a tree diagram and label the branches. (Because there are only 2 events, you can also use a bivariate table to solve.) A. 0.944 B. 0.789 C. 0.056 D. 0.211
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