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A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state

A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in $millions) for one particular area of southeast Texas follow:

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

1

205

213

219

228

2

231

236

244

256

3

237

246

258

265

4

274

282

296

307

a) Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA (centered moving average).

b) Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend on the deseasonlized data.

c) Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5.

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