A manufacturing company is in the urgent need of a specific material. Its purchasing department orders the material from a supplier. If the order is not delivered in five days, the production must be stopped until the arrival of the material. Past data show that if the weather is good, the probability that the supplier can deliver the material in five days is 0.65; if the weather is bad, the probability that the supplier can deliver the material in five days is 0.45. It is forecast that the weather is good with probability 0.8 in the next five days

a) Draw a Probability tree for solving this problem.

b) What is the probability that the order will arrive at the manufacturing company in the next five days?

c) If the manufacturing process is not stopped in the next five days, what is the probability that the weather is bad?