A market forecast is a core component of a market analysis. It projects the future numbers, characteristics, and trends in your target market.

Broadly, there are two categories used by marketers: Methods Based on Judgment and Methods Based on Statistical Sources.

Within Methods Based on Judgment, there are Intention Surveys, Role Playing, Expert Opinions, Conjoint Analysis, and Judgmental Bootstrapping methods. Within Methods Based on Statistical Sources, there are Extrapolation Methods, Rule-based Forecasting, Analogies, Expert Systems, Multivariate Time Series, and Econometric Methods.

Choose, describe, analyze, and critique one method each from Methods Based on Judgment and Methods Based on Statistical Sources. Discuss which method(s) would you use for forecasting new product sales. Why?