A milk vendor wants to predict the demand for the 11^th month using the actual sales of last 10 months. The manager subjectively used 0.40,0.30,0.30 respectively for the most recent, recent and distant past months. Use the 4 Month Moving Average, 5 Month Moving Average, and 3 Month weighted moving Average Methods to the following time series data. Use MAD to answer the following questions.

a) complete the missing entries of the following table using given weights

Month	Demand	4MMA	5MMA	3MWMA	abs error 4MMA	abs error 5MMA	abs error 3MWMA
1	41
2	30
3	39
4	45
5	40
6	41
7	20
8	38
9	26
10	39
11

b. Based on the given weights which is the most accurate method & what is the forecast value to the11th month?

c. Provide optimum weights:

Most recent(w1)=

Recent (w2)=

Distant past (w3)=

Min MAD =

d. What is the forecast to the 11^th month based on the accurate method using the optimum weights?