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A pharmaceutical manufacturer is in the race to create a vaccine for COVID-19. The executives want to have their vaccine candidate approved as soon as

  1. A pharmaceutical manufacturer is in the race to create a vaccine for COVID-19. The executives want to have their vaccine candidate approved as soon as possible. However, due to their fiduciary responsibility to the companys shareholders, their vaccine should also be pursued in a manner that maximizes shareholder value. There are four potential risks they are currently scrutinizing: (1) a delay in clinical trial enrollment of patients; (2) a potential FDA hold on the Phase 3 clinical study due to adverse effects on the trials patients; (3) unreported adverse effects caused by the vaccine discovered late in the trial; and, (4) the need to rewrite the FDA submission due to errors in the initial written submission.

A PRO assessment was performed on the four identified risks. For each of the risks the estimated cost of mitigating the risk (investment) was determined; the enterprise net present value (NPV) protected was calculated given the investment was made; and, the investment productivity (a.k.a return on investment) for each investment was calculated. The following table summarizes this information.

  1. If the top three most productive investments were approved for implementation, what would be the total investment and how much enterprise value would be protected as measured in NPV?
    Risk Investment $ (in millions) NPV Protected $ (in millions) Investment Productivity
    Unreported Adverse Effects 2 120 55.70
    FDA Hold for Adverse Effects 15 335 18.65
    Delay in Clinical Trial Enrollment 4 550 128.50
    Rewrite FDA Submission 3 88 25.10

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