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A pharmaceutical manufacturer is in the race to create a vaccine for COVID-19. The executives want to have their vaccine candidate approved as soon as
- A pharmaceutical manufacturer is in the race to create a vaccine for COVID-19. The executives want to have their vaccine candidate approved as soon as possible. However, due to their fiduciary responsibility to the companys shareholders, their vaccine should also be pursued in a manner that maximizes shareholder value. There are four potential risks they are currently scrutinizing: (1) a delay in clinical trial enrollment of patients; (2) a potential FDA hold on the Phase 3 clinical study due to adverse effects on the trials patients; (3) unreported adverse effects caused by the vaccine discovered late in the trial; and, (4) the need to rewrite the FDA submission due to errors in the initial written submission.
A PRO assessment was performed on the four identified risks. For each of the risks the estimated cost of mitigating the risk (investment) was determined; the enterprise net present value (NPV) protected was calculated given the investment was made; and, the investment productivity (a.k.a return on investment) for each investment was calculated. The following table summarizes this information.
- If the top three most productive investments were approved for implementation, what would be the total investment and how much enterprise value would be protected as measured in NPV?
Risk Investment $ (in millions) NPV Protected $ (in millions) Investment Productivity Unreported Adverse Effects 2 120 55.70 FDA Hold for Adverse Effects 15 335 18.65 Delay in Clinical Trial Enrollment 4 550 128.50 Rewrite FDA Submission 3 88 25.10
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