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A project consists of three sequential activities, and the project manager is trying to determine what completion date to quote to the customer. The customer

A project consists of three sequential activities, and the
project manager is trying to determine what completion date
to quote to the customer. The customer is very eager to
have the project completed, however the project manager
does not want to provide a completion date unless she is
highly confident (greater than 95% probability) that the
project can be completed in that time.

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