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A relatively young bank is growing rapidly in terms of overall customer acquisition. Majority of these are Liability customers with varying sizes of relationship with

A relatively young bank is growing rapidly in terms of overall customer acquisition. Majority of these are Liability customers with varying sizes of relationship with the bank. The customer base of Asset customers is quite small, and the bank WANTS to grow this base rapidly to bring in more loan business. Specifically, it wants to explore ways of converting its liability customers to Personal Loan customers.

A campaign the bank ran for liability customers last year showed a healthy conversion rate of over 9% successes. This has encouraged the Retail Marketing department to design a new model of customer behavior to analyze what combination of parameters make a customer more likely to accept a personal loan?

Data Description

ID

Customer ID

Age

Customer's age in completed years

Experience

#years of professional experience

Income

Annual income of the customer ($000)

Family

Family size of the customer

CCAvg

Avg. spending on credit cards per month ($000)

Education

Education Level. 0: Undergrad; 1: Advanced/Professional

Mortgage

Value of house mortgage if any. ($000)

Securities Account

Does the customer have a securities account with the bank?

CD Account

Does the customer have a CD account with the bank?

Online

Does the customer use internet banking facilities?

CreditCard

Does the customer use a credit card issued by the bank?

Personal Loan

Did this customer accept the personal loan offered in the last campaign?

The entire data set is given in Sheet1.  Use XL Miner for this problem.

  • Bin the continuous variables as follows:

Age

5 bins of equal width

Experience

5 bins of equal width

Income

6 bins of equal width

CCAvg

3 bins of equal width

Mortgage

5 bins of equal count

  • Partition the data into 60% training and 40% validation set.
  • Run Naïve Bayes’ with detailed report only for validation set.
  • Compute the probability of the two classes (0 = Not accept personal loan, 1 = accept personal loan) for the first case in the validation data set.  (see Sheet1)

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