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A salesman is trying to sell your hospital a new mammogram that is 100% effective in detection.When you look at the specification you notice that

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A salesman is trying to sell your hospital a new mammogram that is 100% effective in detection.When you look at the specification you notice that while the test accuracy has been increased, the false positive rate has increased to 15%. When you question the salesman about this he claims this is not a problem because the test reliability has increased by 20% (from 80% to 100%) while the false positive rate has only increased 5% (from 10% to 15%), thus the probability that if your test is positive you have cancer is greater. To determine if the salesman is correct solve the below tree with the new assumptions (i.e. 100% test accuracy, 15% false rate).

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1000 Women have a mammogram A have Cancer A B B do not have Cancer C D E F C have positive test D have negative test E have positive test (True Positive) F have negative test (False Negative) (False Positive) (True Negative)

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