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A stock price is currently $70, and it is known that at the end of six months it is expected to go up by 14%

A stock price is currently $70, and it is known that at the end of six months it is expected to go up by 14% or down by 8%. The risk-free rate is 12% per annum with continuous compounding, what is the probability (P) of an upward stock movement in a risk-free world?

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