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A surgery center specializes in high-risk cardiovascular surgery. The center needs to forecast its profitability over the next three years to plan for capital
A surgery center specializes in high-risk cardiovascular surgery. The center needs to forecast its profitability over the next three years to plan for capital growth projects. Find the distribution of the net present value of profit over the three-year horizon and analyze the summary statistics using 50 trials. Summarize your conclusions. Use a discount rate of 3%. Click here to view the descriptions of the model. Click here to view a sample of 50 simulation trial results. Set up a spreadsheet model and calculate the net present value for the profits in thousands of dollars using the minimum for uncertain values with uniform distributions, the mean for uncertain values with normal distributions, and the most likely values for uncertain values with triangular distributions. The net present value is $ thousand. (Round to the nearest thousand dollars as needed.) Model description For the first year, the anticipated number of patients served is uniform between 1,300 and 1,800. The growth rate for subsequent years is triangular with parameters (4%, 5%, 8%), and the growth rate for year 2 is independent of the growth rate for year 3. Average billing is normal with mean of $140,000 and standard deviation $10,000. However, because of managed care, the center collects only 25% of billings. Variable costs for supplies and drugs are calculated to be 9% of billings. Fixed costs for salaries, utilities, and so on will amount to $20,000,000 in the first year and the annual increase in fixed costs is uniform between 4% and 6% and independent of other years.
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