48 In the two grey boxes below we demonstrate how the hypothesized scenario can be entered into the model. In 157 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Growth Rate'. In 156 the formula '=$G56* (1+157)' applies the hypothesized 'Growth Rate' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size in Units' for 2019. In 158 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct'. In 159 the formula '=156*158' applies the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size 49 50 51 52 Units'. 53 Enter values or formulas in the yellow cells below to develop the forecast. 54 2016-2019 55 Industry Unit Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E 56 Estimated Total Market Size in Units 600 660 726 799 10% 998 57 Growth Rate 10% 10% 10% 25% 58 Estimated Percent Direct 33% 40% 48% 58% 20% 45% 59 Direct Market Size in Units 200 264 348 460 32% 449 60 Retail Market Size in Units 400 396 378 339 -5% 549 61 62 Company 63 Company Unit Models 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E 64 Estimated Direct Market Share 50% 40% 30% 20% 65 Estimated Retail Market Share 70% 75% 80% 85% 66 Direct Units Sold 100 106 105 92 -64% 67 Retail Units Sold 280 297 302 288 732% 68 Total Units Sold 380 403 407 380 716% 69 70 Revenues Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E 71 Price to Direct 200 200 200 200 0% 72 Price to Retailers 125 125 125 125 0% 73 Direct Revenues 20,000 21,120 20,909 18,400 -3% 74 Retail Revenues 35,000 37,125 37,752 35,977 1% 75 Total Revenues 55,000 58,245 58,661 54,377 0% 76 77 78 Gross Profit Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E 79 Unit Cost 100 100 100 100 0% 80 Direct Cost of Revenues 10,000 10,560 10,454 9,200 -3% Company Unit Models 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E Estimated Direct Market Share 50% 40% 30% 20% Estimated Retail Market Share 70% 75% 80% 85% Direct Units Sold 100 106 105 92 -64% Retail Units Sold 280 297 302 288 732% Total Units Sold 380 403 407 380 716% Revenues Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E Price to Direct 200 200 200 200 0% Price to Retailers 125 125 125 125 0% Direct Revenues 20,000 21,120 20,909 18,400 -3% Retail Revenues 35,000 37,125 37,752 35,977 1% Total Revenues 55,000 58,245 58,661 54,377 0% Gross Profit Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E Unit Cost 100 100 100 100 0% Direct Cost of Revenues 10,000 10,560 10,454 9,200 -3% Retail Cost of Revenues 28,000 29,700 30,202 28,782 1% Direct Gross Profit 10,000 10,560 10,454 9,200 -3% Retail Gross Profit 7,000 7,425 7,550 7,195 1% Total Gross Profit 17,000 17,985 18,005 16,395 -1% Operating Profit Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR 2020E Direct SG&A Percent 10% 10% 10% 10% Retail SG&A Percent 5% 5% 5% 5% Direct SG&A 2,000 2,112 2,091 1,840 -3% Retail SG&A 1,750 1,856 1,888 1,799 1% Direct EBIT 8,000 8,448 8,364 7,360 -3% Retail EBIT 5,250 5,569 5,663 5,397 1% Total EBIT 13,250 14,017 14,026 12,756 -1%