Acme Inc. is looking to predict their spending plan as best as they can and to make significant improvements to estimate future demand in the presence of uncertainty . You are the Private Fleet Manager and you want to make sure you can accurately budget for diesel fuel by using a suitable forecasting technique . You have been given basic raw data to forecast and make recommendations.
Perform a forecasting analysis to predict the 12 week future forecast for diesel fuel. Use :
a. 5-p moving average.
b. Exponential smoothing. Choose the best alpha value that you would recommend and make sure to explain your approach.
c. Is the linear regression between WTI and Diesel cost a good model for this exercise?  What are your recommendations?
d. Research another factor ( besides WTI and Diesel cost), try to find the data for this variable and then perform a multiple linear regression to see if you can get a good model

 

Date 02.01.2017 09.01.2017 16.01.2017 23.01.2017 30.01.2017 06.02.2017 13.02.2017 20.02.2017 27.02.2017 WTI 51.96 N/A 52.75 52.63 53.01 52.9 N/A 54.05 53.2 48.4 06.03.2017 13.03.2017 20.03.2017 48.22 27.03.2017 47.73 50.24 Diesel $/gal 2.597 2.585 2.569 2.562 2.558 2.565 2.572 2.577 2.579 2.564 2.539 2.532 2.556 2.582 2.597 2.595 2.583 2.565 03.04.2017 10.04.2017 53.08 17.04.2017 52.65 24.04.2017 49.23 01.05.2017 48.84 08.05.2017 46.43 15.05.2017 48.85 2.544 22.05.2017 50.73 2.539 29.05.2017 N/A 2.571 05.06.2017 47.4 2.564 12.06.2017 46.08 2.524 19.06.2017 44.2 2.489 26.06.2017 43.38 2.465 03.07.2017 47.04 2.472 10.07.2017 44.4 2.481 17.07.2017 46.02 2.491 24.07.2017 46.34 2.507 31.07.2017 50.17 2.531 07.08.2017 49.39 2.581 14.08.2017 47.59 2.598 21.08.2017 47.37 2.596 28.08.2017 46.57 2.605 04.09.2017 N/A 2.758 11.09.2017 48.06 2.802 18.09.2017 49.88 2.791 25.09.2017 51.85 02.10.2017 57.34 56.77 56.21 58.1 57.48 57.84 2.788 50.59 2.792 09.10.2017 49.58 2.776 16.10.2017 51.86 2.787 23.10.2017 51.91 2.797 30.10.2017 54.11 2.819 06.11.2017 2.882 13.11.2017 2.915 20.11.2017 2.912 27.11.2017 2.926 04.12.2017 2.922 11.12.2017 2.91