ADM 2304 - Assignment 1

1. [10marks]

In the 2015 federal election, 39.47% of the electorate voted for the Liberal party, 31.89% for the Conservative party, 19.71% for the NDP, 4.66% for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3.45% for the Green party.

1. (a) A recent poll of 1500 respondents found that 28% support the Conservative party. Test whether this is sufficient evidence to conclude that the level of support has dropped since the election. Use the 5% level of significance and show your manual calculations.
2. (b) Suppose you want to estimate the national level of support for the Conservatives using a 95% 2-sided confidence interval with a margin of error of 1%. What sample size would be required?
3. (c) Suppose that, in a random sample of 17 University of Ottawa students, only 2 indicated a preference for the Conservatives. Test whether this is sufficient evidence to indicate that the level of support for the Conservatives among U of O students is lower than the 31.89% share of the popular vote in 2015. Use the .05 level of significance and show what probability you need to find to calculate the p-value for the result.