After extensive research and development, Goodweek Tires, Inc has recently developed a new tire, the Super Tread, and must decide whether to make the investment necessary to produce and market it. The tire would be ideal for drivers doing a large amount of wet weather and off road driving in addition to normal freeway usage. The research and development costs so far have totaled about $10 million. The Super Tread would be put on the market beginning this year, and Goodweek expects it to stay on the market for a total of four years. Test marketing costing $5 million has shown that there is a significant market for a Super Tread type tire.

As a financial analyst, you have been asked by the CFO, Adam Smith, to evaluate the Super Tread project and provide recommendation on whether to go ahead with the investment. Except for the initial investment that will occur immediately, assume all cash flows will occur at year end. Goodweek must initially invest $120 million in production equipment to make the Super Tread. This equipment can be sold for $51 million at the end of four years. Goodweek intends to sell the Super Tread to two distinct markets:

The original equipment manufacturer (OEM) market: The OEM market consists primarily of the large automobile companies (Like General Motors) that buy tires for new cars. In the OEM market, the SuperTread is expected to sell for $36 per tire. The variable cost to produce each tire is $18.

The replacement market: The replacement market consists of all tires purchased after the automobile has left the factory. This market allows higher margins; Goodweek expects to sell the SuperTread for $59 per tire there. Variable costs are the same as in the OEM market.

Goodweek Tires intends to raise prices at 1 percent above the inflation rate; variable costs will also increase at 1 percent above the inflation rate. In addition, the SuperTread project will incur $25 million in marketing and general administration costs the first year. This costs is expected to increase at the inflation rate in the subsequent years.

Goodweeks corporate tax rate is 21 percent. Annual inflation is expected to remain constant at 3.25 percent. The company uses a 15.9 percent discount rate to evaluate new product decisions. Automotive industry expect automobile manufacturers to produce 2 million new cars this year and production to grow at 2.5 percent per year thereafter. Each new car needs four tires (the spare tires are undersized and are in different category). Goodweek Tires expects the SuperTread to capture 11 percent of the OEM market. Industry analyst estimate that the replacement tire market size will be 16 million tires this year and that it will grow at 2 percent annually. Goodweek expects the SuperTread to capture an 8 percent market share.

The appropriate depreciation schedule for the equipment is the seven-year MACRS depreciation schedule (MACRS table attached below). The immediate initial working capital requirement is $11 million. Thereafter, the net working capital requirements will be 15 percent of sales. You need to answer the following questions for your client:

1. What is the NPV of this project?

2. What is the IRR of this project?

3. What are the NPVs and IRRs under best- and worst-case scenario? (treat all the inputs provided as base case information, you need to make your own assumption for numbers used in the best- and worst-case scenario. Your assumptions should make economic sense. Please clearly discuss those assumptions (risk factors) in your written report and label those assumption in the Excel spreadsheet.)

4. Perform sensitivity analysis on prices and market shares (for both OEM and RM). Which market is more important to Goodweek Tires?

5. Provide additional risk analysis if you feel necessary.

6. What is your recommendation to Goodweek Tires?