After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted

exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based

on the net change of 30 for the

three

periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

Period

Actual

Period

Actual

1

217

6

262

2

225

7

264

3

230

8

281

4

247

9

293

5

260

10