AGBE/FIN 4328/5328 HOMEWORKS DUE: 4/8 8AM WTCLASS Part 2 You are the grain market outlook specialist for a Midwestem university. Assume the date is July 15, 2020. This is a two part assignment. Your first task is to forecast the U.S. average yield of com. The following model is available to you: Yt = 67 + 1.874 +0.65C R2 = 0.85 where yis the U.S. average yield per acre of com. Teis a time trend variable and Ct is the mid- July sum of good and excellent crop conditions rating for the United States. The time trend variable equals 20 for 2020 and the mid-July 2020 good crop conditions rating is 30 and the excellent rating is 20. a) Predict the 2020 U.S. average yield of com using the above model The date remains July 15, 2020 and your second task is to complete the balance sheets for com below. You can use the information provided in the table and the answer to problem a. You may also need information not provided here or in problem a. Assume the relationship between the US farm price of corn (y:) and the ending stocks/use ratio (xt): y= 1.9 +6.9+ 2019/2020 2020/2021 Beginning Stocks (Mil. Bu.) 958 Production (Mi. Bu.) 11,807 Total Supply (Mil. Bu.) Food, Seed, Industrial (Mil. Bu.) 2,795 2.950 Exports (Mil. Bu.) 2,000 Feed & Residual (Mil. Bu.) 6,075 6,050 Total Use (Mil. Bu.) 10,720 Ending Stocks (Mil. Bu.) (use whole number) 80.9 81.4 Harvested Acreage (Mil. Acres) Yield Acre (Bu./Acre) Ending Stock/Use (%) Farm Price ($/Bu.) 145.95 2.26 (use ending stock as a parcuat) AGBE/FIN 4328/5328 HOMEWORKS DUE: 4/8 8AM WTCLASS Part 2 You are the grain market outlook specialist for a Midwestem university. Assume the date is July 15, 2020. This is a two part assignment. Your first task is to forecast the U.S. average yield of com. The following model is available to you: Yt = 67 + 1.874 +0.65C R2 = 0.85 where yis the U.S. average yield per acre of com. Teis a time trend variable and Ct is the mid- July sum of good and excellent crop conditions rating for the United States. The time trend variable equals 20 for 2020 and the mid-July 2020 good crop conditions rating is 30 and the excellent rating is 20. a) Predict the 2020 U.S. average yield of com using the above model The date remains July 15, 2020 and your second task is to complete the balance sheets for com below. You can use the information provided in the table and the answer to problem a. You may also need information not provided here or in problem a. Assume the relationship between the US farm price of corn (y:) and the ending stocks/use ratio (xt): y= 1.9 +6.9+ 2019/2020 2020/2021 Beginning Stocks (Mil. Bu.) 958 Production (Mi. Bu.) 11,807 Total Supply (Mil. Bu.) Food, Seed, Industrial (Mil. Bu.) 2,795 2.950 Exports (Mil. Bu.) 2,000 Feed & Residual (Mil. Bu.) 6,075 6,050 Total Use (Mil. Bu.) 10,720 Ending Stocks (Mil. Bu.) (use whole number) 80.9 81.4 Harvested Acreage (Mil. Acres) Yield Acre (Bu./Acre) Ending Stock/Use (%) Farm Price ($/Bu.) 145.95 2.26 (use ending stock as a parcuat)
