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Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria ( AIC and BIC ) guard us against models that are too complex. We should choose models at or near

Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC) guard us against models that are too complex. We should choose models at or near AIC/BIC minimum. When the gain in likelihood (improvement in the fit) due to the addition of yet another model parameter is completely offset by the penalty associated with that parameter (i.e. AIC/BIC starts growing as we add variables), the model is likely to overfit and should be avoided (or at least cross-validated very thoroughly and with prejudice!).
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