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Along with the sensitivity analysis, Danielle is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a
Along with the sensitivity analysis, Danielle is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPV. Her report includes the following information about the scenario analysis:
Data Collected
Outcome | NPVj | Probability (Pj) |
Pessimistic | $2.31 million | 0.50 |
Most likely | $4.53 million | 0.35 |
Optimistic | $12.11 million | 0.15 |
Probability Data for z
z | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
-1.0 | 0.1515 | 0.1446 | 0.1379 |
-0.8 | 0.2033 | 0.1949 | 0.1867 |
-0.6 | 0.2643 | 0.2546 | 0.2451 |
-0.4 | 0.3336 | 0.3228 | 0.3121 |
Complete the missing information in Danielles report: (Note: Round your answers to two decimal places.)
The expected net present value of the project is______ million. | |
Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by)_____ million. | |
Assuming that probability distribution is normal, the value of z is _____ . | |
Thus, the project has a _____ chance to generate an NPV of less than $0. |
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