An investment project requires the investment costs of $120,000 at the present time and an additional investment of $120,000 at year 1. Annual operating expenses (OPEX) are $6,000 (starting from year 2). There are three possible outcomes for this project:
• 15% probability of success with an annual income of $200,000 from year 2 to 10. At the end of the 10th year, there is a salvage value of $60,000 and environmental remediation cost of $70,000.
• 50% probability of success with an annual income of $120,000 and an annual environmental remediation cost of $10,000 from years 2 to 7. The salvage value is $60,000 at the end of year 7.
• 35% probability of failure with zero income, no environmental remediation cost, and a salvage value of $250,000 at the end of year 2.
Calculate expected IRR and conclude if this is a recommended investment considering a minimum rate of return of 12.5%.